BRANDEIS JOURNAL OF POLITICS
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  • Current Issue
    • Letter From the Editors
    • Debt As A Tool Of Inequity
    • A Comparison of Unemployment Insurance In Western Europe & The United States
    • Charter Schools: One Path To The American Dream
    • Re-examining Private Education And Social Inequality In Chile
    • Bargaining Against Americans: How Public Sector Unions Undermine Accountability And Hurt Citizens
    • Could the European Union’s Agricultural Policy Serve as a Framework For US Agricultural Policy
    • Reducing Emissions in Developing Nations
    • No-Excuse Absentee Voting: A Fair Equalizer
    • Abortion Rights: Safeguarding Women’s Liberty
    • Diplomatic Immunity: Outdated, Unethical, And In Need of Reform
  • Archive
    • Letters From the Editor >
      • Fall 2018
      • Spring 2019
    • Sub-Saharan Africa Section >
      • Burgeoning Cities and Suffering Publics: The Lagosian Infrastructure Trade-Off
      • An Explosive Climate: Spiraling Security Politics in the Lake Chad Basin
      • Africa's Digital Advance
      • The Language of Crisis
      • The African Gold Rush
      • Adowa Dance: Black Feminist Practice
      • The Panda’s Approach to Pandemonium: Managing Corruption in Nigeria
      • Student Movements in South Africa: Decolonization, Language, and Racial Justice
      • Foreign Investment in Africa: A Legacy of Unequal Relationships
      • The Politics of Inclusion
      • Uganda: The Politics of Persecution
      • The Politics of Destabilization: Interpreting Al Shabaab’s “Terrorist Attack” in Kenya
      • Senegal's Arduous Path Forward
      • Political Relations with Major Powers
      • A Half-Hearted Commitment to the Central African Republic
      • A Conflict-Free Congo: Can Corporations Revise Their Use of Conflict Minerals?
      • Rituals or Rights? The Politics of Female Genital Modification in Somalia
      • Mali: Tensions Between Islam, Ethnic Differences and the State
      • Manufactured Hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa
      • Two Nigerias in Conflict: The Emergence of Boko Haram and its Implications for Nigerian Stability
      • US-Africa Summit: A Turning Point in Relations
      • A Change in Leadership at a Critical Period
      • The African Union and the International Criminal Court: Selective Justice?
      • Is the Fairytale Over For South Africa?
      • Interpreting US AFRICOM Toward a Future of Military Engagement on the African Continent
      • From Decentralization to Secession: Tuareg Rebels and the Quest for Balance in Mali
      • The Dragon's Gold: Chinese Investment in Africa
      • Deconstructing Boko Haram: Institutional Reform on the Path to Peace
      • Oil Money: Ghana’s Economic Considerations in the Global Oil Surplus
      • Protests in Ethiopia
      • Africa's Infrastructure: Leapfrogging the Traditional
    • Americas Section >
      • Three Kinds of Representation: The Case of Argentinian Women in Congress
      • American Military Presence in Okinawa: An Obsolete Endeavor
      • Abolish ICE: A History of the Agency and The New Movement for its Elimination
      • I Don’t Want to Talk About Vietnam”: U.S. Counterinsurgency between Saigon and Baghdad
      • Refugees in Canada: A Closer Look at the Safe Third Country Agreement
      • Sovereignty Under Attack?: The Costa Rican Case
      • Who, When, and How? Social Democracy Awaits in Cuba
      • Ni Una Menos: Twitter's Role in Fighting Femicide in Argentina
      • American Saber-Rattling Not Enough to Destroy Trade Relations with Canada
      • The Beaver and the Dragon: Canada's Strategic Embrace of China
      • Room For Improvement: Macri’s Economic Reforms, Argentine Political History, and the Argentinian Poor’s Protests
      • The More, The Merrier: Democracy, Corruption, and Impunity in Honduras
      • The Problem of Bouterse
      • The Socio-Economic Risk Factors that Culminated in the Zika Virus Outbreak
      • Trump’s Unfettered Populism and What It Could Mean for U.S. Foreign Relations
      • Cyber Attacks and Political Hacks: Implications of the 2014 Sony Pictures Entertainment Hack
      • The Past, Present, and Future of the American Immigration System
      • The Path to a Global Internet
      • Threat from the East: China's Pivot to Latin America
      • State of Anarchy: The International Void Created by Maras in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras
      • Redefining Cuban Relations: A Closer Look at the End of the Cuban Embargo
      • The Dilemma of Mutual Understanding
      • The End of an Era: The Normalization of U.S.-Cuban Relations
      • Leader by Default: Why the Sun Has Yet to Set on American Global Leadership
      • Colombia and the FARC: Peace at Last?
      • Brazil’s Elections: The Long-Term Implications of a Tight Presidential Race
      • The Enduring Popularity of Rafael Correa and the New Left
      • The Secret Ingredient: Why Drones are Vital to U.S. Hegemony
      • Effects of Snowden’s NSA Leaks on U.S. Foreign Relations
      • The Failure of The United States’ Arab Spring Strategy
      • Apocalypse Postponed: The Enduring Importance of Maintaining the Arms Control Regime
      • Judicial Review or Institutionalized Racism?
      • Negotiating with North Korea: Try and Try Again
      • Celebrating Fifty Years of Diplomatic Gridlock: U.S.-Cuba Relations in 2012
      • Regional Integration and Private Sector Growth in Cuba
      • The Prospects of Slavery Reparations in the Caribbean
      • Protests Reflect Infrastructural Inadequacies in Brazil
      • History in the Making or a Recipe for Disaster? El Salvador’s Gang Truce Examined
      • Debating Iran: Can the United States Make a Deal with the Devil?
      • Priority for 21st Century Defense: A Sustainable U.S. Military Strategy
      • The Rise of Drones in American Foreign Policy
      • From a Dirt Road to a Green Cup: Brazil 2014
      • Leftward Shifts and Power Shifts: Latin America’s Pink Tide
    • Asia-Pacfic Section >
      • No Country for the Rohingya: An Explanation of the Rohingya Refugee Crisis
      • The Future of American Trade Fear in East Asia
      • Entering The Chinese Room: China's Quest to Lead a New World Order
      • A Second Red Wedding: The Complications of Sino-Russian Relations
      • The Break Up: China and North Korea’s Toxic Relationship
      • Instability in the Middle Kingdom: The Shaky Foundations of China's Rise
      • The New Red Scare: An Examination of Cross-Strait Skepticism
      • A Realistic Move: China's New Silk Road
      • The Cost of Voting: How Xi Jinping Simultaneously Increased Democracy and Authoritarianism
      • Fishing For Trouble: The Economic Costs of Conflict in the South China Sea
      • The Danger of the Thucydides Trap: Xi Jinping's Visit to the United States
      • David vs. Goliath: The Philippines-China Arbitration Case
      • Xi's Return to Maoism
      • A Cause for Optimism?: China’s Energy Policy Post-COP21
      • The Show Goes On: Vietnam's Balancing Act
      • Redefining The State: Nationalism and the Push for Constitutional Revision in Japan
      • China’s Resources Policy: Expanding Influence
      • China’s Maritime Strategy: The Pursuit of Regional Dominance
      • China’s Geo-economics: Politics of Inequality
      • China’s Transition of Power: Domestic Struggles for Political Dominance
      • Confrontations Between Tibetan Protestors and the CCP Police Continue
      • 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster and Aftermath
      • Why Would China Want a Democratized Hong Kong?
      • East Asian Regional Integration
      • Stronger Together: A Case for ASEAN Military Integration
      • Capitalism Fights to Survive in China’s Special Administrative Regions
      • China’s Increased Involvement in Afghanistan Divergent from U.S. Wants
      • The Future of the Tibetan Problem
      • The Geopolitical Implications of the Indo-Japanese Abe-Modi Summit
      • Australia Experiences Heightened Degree of Geopolitical Influence U.S. and China Eye Each Other’s Moves in the Asia Pacific
      • Xi Jinping’s AntiCorruption Campaign: Stalinist Purge, or Second Chance for the Chinese Communist Party?
      • South China Sea Territorial Disputes ‘Rock The Boat’ of Regional Security
    • Europe Section >
      • Nominal Interests: A Breakthrough in the Ongoing Name Dispute Between the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Greece
      • The Reinvention of the National Front
      • Democracy in Transition: Hungary's Descent into Authoritarianism
      • (Un)Orthodox Nationalism
      • Something is Rotting in the State of Denmark: Ethnic Nationalism Takes Root in Scandinavia
      • Blood, Oil, and Tears: Azerbaijan's Tradeoff Between Corruption and Growth
      • The Bear Awakens: Russia's Strategy to Sow Chaos in the West
      • Russia’s Return to Religion Signals Changes in Politics and Society, but Not Secularization
      • Spain: The Forgotten Frontier
      • Bye Bye Britain: Euroscepticism Threatens EU Solidarity in June Referendum
      • Europe's Migrant Dumping Ground: Serbia's Refugee Crisis
      • Regional Reconciliation: Evaluating Whether Cuba Will Join the OAS and the Subsequent Implications
      • Has Europe Got Milk?
      • Lifting the Iran Curtain: The Future of Economic Relations Between the EU and Tehran
      • Europe’s Take on the Rising Cost of Healthcare
      • Contrasting Eurozone Economies: The Good, the Bad, and the Corrupt
      • Europe's Take on Income Inequality
      • Russia’s Role in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Sustainer of Peace or Tension?
      • The Failure of Austerity
      • The Rise of Kazakhstan: A Solution for the EU’s Russian Energy Dependence?
      • Scotland After the Independence Referendum
      • Closing the European Security Gap
      • Europe Trading Up: The Strategic Importance of the TTIP
      • The UK to Tighten Immigration Restrictions
      • Old Powers, New Glory: U.K. and France’s Changing Roles in the New European Commission
      • Greece’s Political Pressure Cooker: the Rise of Radicalism
      • Caps Off: Analyzing the EU's Influence on Swiss Immigration Policy
      • Bulgaria and Romania’s Entry into the Schengen Treaty to be Further Postponed
      • Catalan Secession and Subsidiarity
      • The View from Independence Square
      • US-Russian Antagonism Reignited Over Human Rights Policy
      • The Dynamics of the Russia-China Relationship
      • European Action to Limit Aviation Greenhouse Gas Emission
    • Middle East and North Africa Section >
      • Confessionalism, the Rise of Hizbullah, and the May 2018 Elections in Lebanon
      • The Dilemma of Rebuilding the Cultural Heritage of Aleppo
      • Stars and Stripes in the Middle East: American Involvement in the Yemen Civil War
      • Unlikely Bedfellows: Israeli-Saudi Security Ties and the Middle East's Worst Kept Secret
      • The Constructed People: Kurdistan's Challenge to Iraqi Nation-Building
      • Globalism, Nationalism, and the Armenian Diaspora
      • The Turkish Coup Attempt: Was it an Erdogan Hoax?
      • Counterterrorism and Monarchical Power in Morocco
      • State and Familial Prostitution in Egypt
      • Post-Revolution Tunisia: The Challenges of Regional Inequality to the Political Transition
      • Examining Jordan's Influence in the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process
      • Democracy in Tunisia
      • A Cold Peace: The Future of Egyptian-Israeli Relations
      • Can He Do It? Examining the Significance of Hassan Rouhani Regarding Iranian Relations
      • The Iranian Interim Deal: Perspectives and Implications
      • Transcending the Sunni-Shia Divide; An Overview of Al Qaeda-Iranian Relations
      • Turkey: The Middle East’s “It” Country, or Has It Outgrown Its Fifteen Minutes of Fame?
      • Religious Minorities in the MENA: The Baha'is and Druze in Israel
      • The Invisible Hand Behind the Arab Spring
      • Egypt as a Litmus Test
      • Instability in Yemen: A Rebel Takeover
      • Hitting Home: Understanding the Appeal of the Islamic State in the West
      • Lessons From Afghanistan
      • The Role of the US in Mediating the Israeli- Palestinian Conflict
      • The Everlasting Struggle: The Genius of Erdogan’s Political Rhetoric
      • Libya: Before and After the Fall of Muammar Gaddafi
      • Recent NGO Crisis Exposes Divisions in Egyptian Politics
      • The Revolution Will Be Live Streamed: The Role of the Internet in the Arab Spring: The Role of the Internet in the Arab Spring
      • Lebanon to join the Arab Spring?
      • The Persian Gulf and U.S. Strategy: Past and Future
      • Disintigrating Under Pressure: Saudi-U.S. Relations and the Syrian Conflict
      • Assessing the Effectiveness of Micro-finance Institutions in Jordan and Beyond
      • Prosecution, Politics, and Peace: Palestine’s Admittance to the International Criminal Court
    • Central and South Asia Section >
      • GST: India's Largest Economic Reform Since 1992
      • Investing in Kazakhstan: A Model of Chinese Power Acquisition
      • The Rise of Intolerance in India
      • The Past Guiding the Present: How Mongolia’s Soviet Past is Shaping its Development in the 21st Century
      • Will India Choose Israeli Technology or Iranian Oil?
      • The 2014 Indian Elections: The Rise of the BJP
      • Examining Modi's Defense Policy
      • The Indo-U.S. Relationship: Through the Lens of Republic Day
      • Hegemon Games: The Indo-Pak Question
      • Growing Forces: Foreign Investment in Central Asia
      • The Rupee Stumbles – What’s India’s Next Step?
      • The Enemy Behind the Gates: Pakistan's Teetering Talks
      • Indian Foreign Policy: In Search of a Direction
      • The Collapse of the India-Pakistan Talks
      • The Global Race to Myanmar
      • Trade: Is This the Way Ahead for Resolving Outstanding Disputes Between India and Pakistan?
    • Theme Section >
      • Economic Effects of Brexit: Should The UK Leave?
      • Will Demographics Drive China’s Debt Towards Disaster?
      • Using Realpolitik to Understand American Involvement in NATO
      • Security, Money, and Culture: The Role of the WTO in the Resilience of the U.S.-Japan Alliance
      • The Effects of China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Influence, Trade, and Resources
      • The Responsibility to Protect: A Well-Meaning yet Inadequate Solution to the Battle Between Sovereignty and Humanitarian Intervention
      • Disconnecting Dissent: The Dilemma of Privatized Public Speech and Free Information Online
      • Who Owns the Internet?: Control and Mastery of the New Public Sphere
      • Online Community Building: The Emotional, Social, and Political Challenges of Adapting to a New Way of Being Together
      • “The Great Firewall” as an Inefficient Barrier
      • Borderline Open: The Barriers of Schengen
      • The World’s Most Dangerous Border: Refugees in the Mediterranean Are Fighting for Their Lives
      • Overcoming the Physical Barriers of Natural Disasters: Despair and Hope in post-Hurricane Dominica
      • From Past to Present: The Porous Nature of the DRC’s Borders
      • India's Struggle for Gender Equality
      • A False Sense of Protection: Failure of the UN to Address Allegations of Sexual Assault Against Peacekeepers
      • Scapegoats of Politics: How the Malaysian Transgender Community Fell Victim to the Politicization of Islam
      • Adversity and Perseverance: The Story of Bangladesh's Garment Worker
      • "Bye, Honey!": Brazilian Women Fight for Their Rights After Dilma Rousseff's Impeachment
      • Mexico's Unstable Democracy: Self-Defense Groups, Cartels, and the Struggle Over the Rule of Law
      • Obama to Trump: Immigration Policy Rhetoric and Resistance
      • Translating Democratic Theory into Constitutional Design: A Conversation with Professor Jefferey A. Lenowitz
      • The Reign In Spain: Analyzing the Catalan Threat to European Democratic Order
      • Reaching for the Sky: The New Age of Connection in Sri Lanka
      • The Battle for Ukraine
      • North Korea’s Strategy of Escalating Threats and Its Problems
      • Accusations of Pinkwashing in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
      • Economies in Transformation, A Continent in Transition
      • The Dynastic Dictatorship Continued: The Internal Dynamics of North Korea and What to Expect From the New Leader
      • Russia's Gas Diplomacy
      • The "Oldest Profession" Organizes: A Conversation with Professor Gowri Vijayakumar
      • An Amazonian Legacy of Military Rule
      • Soldiers of Destiny, Deferred: Marriage Equality and Reproductive Rights in Irish Politics
      • A Tale of Two Courts: Why Chinese Capitalism Does Not Come With the Rule of Law
      • A Failure to Rise to the Occasion: Syria and the Future of “Responsibility to Protect”
      • South Sudan: Democracy Or Despair
      • Protests and Repression in a Digital Age
      • Wiping the Slate Clean: Modi's Water Conundrum
      • Increasing Oil Production: A Sound Approach to Achieving U.S. Energy Independence?
      • Water's Influence on Middle Eastern Policy: A Conversation with Dr. Mahmoud Abu-Allaban
      • A New Era for the Nile: The Effects of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
      • Getting Past the Green Monster: An Analysis of Germany's Energy Transition
      • Theme Section Graphics
      • The African Union and a New Scramble: A Continent in Transition
      • Regional Perspectives
      • Pervasive Issues in China's Continued Urbanization
      • Art, Power, Politics, and Protest in Saudi Arabia
      • Should Europe Brace Itself for Brexit
      • Energy Analysis
      • Composition & Organs
      • African Union Timeline
      • The Rohingya Refugee Crisis
      • Interview with Dr. Sung-Yoon Lee, Kim Koo-Korea Foundation Professor in Korean Studies
      • A Historical and Political Understanding of Aid: The Implications and Conditions of Aid Packages
      • Park Geun-hye’s “New Kind of Korea” Prospects for Re-envisioned Inter-Korean Relations
      • Interview with Professor Nyangoni
      • Interview With Professor Padraig Carmody of Trinity College of Dublin, Author of The New Scramble for Africa
      • Timeline of U.S. Refugee Resettlement
      • A closer look into North Korea
      • How Does North Korea Stack Up?
      • According to the Expert: Interview With Professor Eva Bellin
      • Fulfilling an Ideological Destiny? An Insight into United States Policy Regarding the Syrian Conflict
      • PIS Off: Polish Women Mobilize to Reject Tightening of Abortion Restrictions
      • Brain Drain in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Downside of Migration
      • Grand Master and Pawns: Looking at the United States and Russia
      • In Putin’s Element: Why the U.S. Needs to Let Russia Take the Lead in Destroying Syria’s Chemical Weapons
      • In Syria, It’s the End of the Line
      • Greenback Boogie: The Story of Remittances from Central Asian Immigrants in Russia
      • Regional Perspectives
      • The EU as a Passive Actor
      • In Search of Home: The Impact of Syrian Refugees on the International Community
      • Vladimir Putin: The New Leader of the Free World?
      • Modi's Pakistan Strategy
      • Resistance Infographic
      • Mexico's Other Border: Human Rights Abuses of the Trans-North American Migrant Crisis
      • Most Significant Refugee Producing Countries
      • Syrian Conflict Statistics
      • The View From Moscow: Contention and Cooperation in the Middle East
      • A Discussion of the EU with Lorenzo Bini Smaghi
      • EU Timeline
      • Turkey's Membership in the EU: A Holy Venture?
      • Al-Shabaab and the Threats Posed to International Peace and Security
      • Interview with Professor Robert J. Art
      • Instability and Nationalism: Why Ecuador's Colombian Refugees Face Discrimination
      • ISIS Timeline
      • Interview with Professor Gary Jefferson
      • Contemporary Cyber-Terrorism
      • ISIS’ Rise to Prominence and Implications for the Future: A Conversation with Ambassador Dennis Ross
      • Qatar: An Uncertain Ally Against IS
      • Red to Pink: The Continued Evolution of the Chinese Internet Space
      • Russia’s Separatist Subversions: Return of the Steamroller, or Running Out of Steam?
      • Shifting Sands: Arab Tacit Support of Israel during the Recent Gaza Conflict
      • North Korea’s Other Crisis
      • China’s Korean Dilemma
      • State-Sponsored Separatism: the Specter of Russian Influence in Post-Revolution Ukraine
      • The Iraqi Crisis: The Effects of Sectarian Politics and Religious Divides
      • The Islamic State and the Rise of Western Jihadism: Interview with Professor Jytte Klausen
      • Regions Under Threat By Global Climate Change
    • Afro and African American Studies >
      • Malcolm X: A Misunderstood Legacy
    • Sociology >
      • The Implications of the Melting Pot: Examining the Political Socialization Process for Children of Immigrants
      • The Modern WelfareWarfare Nexus
    • Economics >
      • The Demise of Middle-Class America: Corporate-Performance Focused Development, Automation, and the Middle-Class Squeeze
      • Equity and Efficiency: Reconsidering the “Big Tradeoff”
      • Low Cost Carriers and the Future of Air Travel in Asia
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  • CONTACT
Interview with Professor Gary Jefferson
Carl Marks Professor of International Trade and Finance and a Specialist in the Chinese Economy
      By Sungtae Park


 1. SP: Will the Chinese economy have a soft landing or a hard landing?

GJ: Either could happen. My expectation is that, to the extent that China’s economic growth slows, and as a rapidly developing country, surely it will slow, I doubt there will be so-called a hard landing in the immediate future. I would say that probably is the result of three factors. You might call them cushions. One is that China presently has a substantial amount of slack in the execution of its monetary policy. That is, it is able to substantially relax its monetary policy and allow more of its credit to circulate throughout the economy as needed. The second factor is that it is fairly fiscally robust. It’s not running an excessively large deficit. In the wake of the financial crisis, it was able to mount a stimulus program that in relation to its GDP was substantially larger than that of the United States. If necessary, it could do that again. And probably the most important factor in comparison with the U.S. is that the fiscal balance of the households, its families is in much better shape than in the U.S., and that’s because the household savings rate has been so exceptionally high in recent decade. Households have a substantial safety cushion and are unlikely to dramatically cut back ontheir spending as occurred here in the U.S.

2. SP: How would you define a hard landing for the Chinese economy?

GJ: Well, its growth has been consistently above eight percent. If it were to fall to less than that, half of that, say four percent, I suppose that would constitute a hard landing by Chinese standards. Over the next ten to twenty years, the growth rate of China’s economy will most likely slow to the range of four to six percent, which will occur as a result of the reduction in the rate of migration of underemployed from the rural sector to the urban, industrial, service sectors. That’s been the great growth driver over the last two decades. But of course, the number of people migrating as a proportion of the overall economy and overall labor force is diminishing over time. The second factor is that many industries in China, ranging from textile to telecommunications equipment, are approaching the international technology frontier. The economic growth in coastal areas has indeed slowed down. So China’s overall growth will slow. If, over the next year or so, China’s growth were to fall precipitously to four percent, I would construe that as a hard landing.

 3. SP: You mentioned China’s 2008 stimulus package which was indeed a great success. It also spurred massive inflation and the real-estate bubble we have been seeing the past two years or so, however. Is it ok for the Chinese government to become so heavily involved in its economy?

GJ: Of course, it creates some serious inefficiencies. Indeed, recessions do perform some economic functions in being able to flush out more inefficient parts of the economy. Arguably, China has been deferring that kind of cleansing activity by virtue of sustaining high growth. On the other hand, it has allowed for the reentry of new technologically dynamic industries. The market share has clearly tilted towards more industries and companies that have been relatively efficient, but there is no doubt that there has been a great deal of inefficiency and perhaps also some latent danger in sectors of the financial sector and in banking in particular. But China continues to exercise a substantial amount of control over state-owned enterprises. It has upsides and downsides. The upside is that China is emerging as a global leader in certain frontier industries, particularly renewable energy. The downside is that it does not have political oversight, as we have in this country (the United States), that can monitor, criticize, and control the government’s inefficient spending on so-called strategic pillar industries, such as renewable energy resources.

 4. SP: How would an economic downturn, small or big, affect China’s social and political stability?

GJ: I think this is the biggest challenge in China - making its political transition. In many ways, people underestimate the extent to which China has made a political transition. Many think that China has achieved great changes in the economic sector but not in the political sector. In fact, China’s economy has largely transformed from a centrally planned economy, with socialist ownership, to a market economy with private ownership. It’s essentially a capitalist economy now. The essential function of the political system is no longer to manage the development and the execution of the central plan. The central function of the political system now is to oversee the functioning of a capitalist economy. What that means is that the whole range of property rights, concerning human capital, including the ability to move between companies and negotiate work conditions, has been transferred to individual Chinese residents. This extensive transfer of property rights from the state to individuals also includes the ownership of corporate assets, land, housing, intellectual property.

      Now the principal challenge to the government is to oversee the development of institutions that are able to clarify these property rights, mediate conflicts among individuals and private groups that are actually exercising these property rights. There’s a much more active role for the electoral process, local village governments, and the National People’s Congress. It doesn’t mean that open and transparent choices are being made but they are much more so than they were twenty, thirty years ago. There is a much greater role for the court system. There is a much greater role for non-governmental organizations, which, five to ten years ago, hardly existed. Now there are millions of them. Most of them are not registered, but as long as they stick to advocating their economic rights, generally the government allows them to function.

     Even protests serve a function. As I recall about four years ago, when I was in Wuhan, in Wuchang, I encountered a protest of about a hundred people demonstrating against the taking of their housing by the Wuhan City government. Now interestingly, one branch of the Wuhan government authorized the razing of their homes. Another branch actually authorized the protests. This was a well-choreographed protest. There were banners hanging across the streets. There were no police there, trying to break it up or anything. I took photographs of it, with my thumbs up, waving and so forth. What the protesters wanted, they had been offered 1,000 RMB per square meter for their razed homes. They protested and were demanding 2,000 RMB per square meter. My understanding is that the dispute was finally resolved with the government paying each resident 2,000 RMB per square meter plus a one-time 10,000 RMB payment for relocation.

     My sense is that, from the government’s perspective, if your protest focuses on economic issues, seeking clarification of economic property rights, and doesn’t conspicuously spill over into the political realm, although there is a narrow distinction here, the government views protests as feasible instruments for the way in which it manages conflict. My sense is that the political system has changed dramatically. What you don’t have are national political parties that are contesting with each other the way we are familiar with. But you do have a lot of debate nationally. We have been seen the apparent political demise of Bo Xilai, the party secretary of Chongqing, who is very much an advocate of the old line Maoist approach, reinvigorating state-owned enterprises, and representing labor rights against capitalist interests. Whereas the main line, in terms of Xi Jinping, the president-designate and others, is much more actively reformist. There are numerous national debates, in part reflecting contending divisions within the Party. As compared with the past, these differences are capturing far more media and popular participation than in the past. Those who are actually involved in the decision making are a fairly large number of persons. It’s not a dictatorship by any means as it was arguably thirty years ago.

 5. SP: How much will the current crisis in the EU affect the Chinese economy?

GJ: I suspect that whatever impact the EU crisis has had on the Chinese economy or will have on the Chinese economy has largely manifested itself. It is likely that there will be more slowdowns in the EU. That means less import demand from the EU, fewer exports from China. But China is trying to compensate for this in some way by expanding its foreign investment in EU countries, notably in Ireland but also in Southern Europe. Doing so will open markets more to Chinese exports. I don’t know what the net effect will be, but unless the EU really tanks and causes the U.S. economy to tank, and some of the emerging economies tank, I suspect the impact on China will not be huge. I can be a bit of an optimist, and I have been over the last twenty years and more. Crises will certainly happen. We see it in the U.S., and we are certainly seeing an economic crisis in the EU. That’s the nature of capitalism. It certainly will happen in China, but I don’t think it will reflect the failure of China’s development model and create an irreversible condition. There will be adjustments. China’s leadership probably has the capacity to respond effectively in the economic realm. The issue will be their ability to orchestrate the political system in the face of growth of political dissent, if the economy weakens substantially. That’s the big challenge, to make the political transition thoroughly. In many ways, the infrastructure for political reform is there with the National People’s Congress, with local elections, with court systems developing, and with NGOs. The political infrastructure is there to take one or two large steps further, meaning holding elections at the municipal and provincial levels, to allow for more open debate. We will have to see if that can happen.

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    • Letter From the Editors
    • Debt As A Tool Of Inequity
    • A Comparison of Unemployment Insurance In Western Europe & The United States
    • Charter Schools: One Path To The American Dream
    • Re-examining Private Education And Social Inequality In Chile
    • Bargaining Against Americans: How Public Sector Unions Undermine Accountability And Hurt Citizens
    • Could the European Union’s Agricultural Policy Serve as a Framework For US Agricultural Policy
    • Reducing Emissions in Developing Nations
    • No-Excuse Absentee Voting: A Fair Equalizer
    • Abortion Rights: Safeguarding Women’s Liberty
    • Diplomatic Immunity: Outdated, Unethical, And In Need of Reform
  • Archive
    • Letters From the Editor >
      • Fall 2018
      • Spring 2019
    • Sub-Saharan Africa Section >
      • Burgeoning Cities and Suffering Publics: The Lagosian Infrastructure Trade-Off
      • An Explosive Climate: Spiraling Security Politics in the Lake Chad Basin
      • Africa's Digital Advance
      • The Language of Crisis
      • The African Gold Rush
      • Adowa Dance: Black Feminist Practice
      • The Panda’s Approach to Pandemonium: Managing Corruption in Nigeria
      • Student Movements in South Africa: Decolonization, Language, and Racial Justice
      • Foreign Investment in Africa: A Legacy of Unequal Relationships
      • The Politics of Inclusion
      • Uganda: The Politics of Persecution
      • The Politics of Destabilization: Interpreting Al Shabaab’s “Terrorist Attack” in Kenya
      • Senegal's Arduous Path Forward
      • Political Relations with Major Powers
      • A Half-Hearted Commitment to the Central African Republic
      • A Conflict-Free Congo: Can Corporations Revise Their Use of Conflict Minerals?
      • Rituals or Rights? The Politics of Female Genital Modification in Somalia
      • Mali: Tensions Between Islam, Ethnic Differences and the State
      • Manufactured Hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa
      • Two Nigerias in Conflict: The Emergence of Boko Haram and its Implications for Nigerian Stability
      • US-Africa Summit: A Turning Point in Relations
      • A Change in Leadership at a Critical Period
      • The African Union and the International Criminal Court: Selective Justice?
      • Is the Fairytale Over For South Africa?
      • Interpreting US AFRICOM Toward a Future of Military Engagement on the African Continent
      • From Decentralization to Secession: Tuareg Rebels and the Quest for Balance in Mali
      • The Dragon's Gold: Chinese Investment in Africa
      • Deconstructing Boko Haram: Institutional Reform on the Path to Peace
      • Oil Money: Ghana’s Economic Considerations in the Global Oil Surplus
      • Protests in Ethiopia
      • Africa's Infrastructure: Leapfrogging the Traditional
    • Americas Section >
      • Three Kinds of Representation: The Case of Argentinian Women in Congress
      • American Military Presence in Okinawa: An Obsolete Endeavor
      • Abolish ICE: A History of the Agency and The New Movement for its Elimination
      • I Don’t Want to Talk About Vietnam”: U.S. Counterinsurgency between Saigon and Baghdad
      • Refugees in Canada: A Closer Look at the Safe Third Country Agreement
      • Sovereignty Under Attack?: The Costa Rican Case
      • Who, When, and How? Social Democracy Awaits in Cuba
      • Ni Una Menos: Twitter's Role in Fighting Femicide in Argentina
      • American Saber-Rattling Not Enough to Destroy Trade Relations with Canada
      • The Beaver and the Dragon: Canada's Strategic Embrace of China
      • Room For Improvement: Macri’s Economic Reforms, Argentine Political History, and the Argentinian Poor’s Protests
      • The More, The Merrier: Democracy, Corruption, and Impunity in Honduras
      • The Problem of Bouterse
      • The Socio-Economic Risk Factors that Culminated in the Zika Virus Outbreak
      • Trump’s Unfettered Populism and What It Could Mean for U.S. Foreign Relations
      • Cyber Attacks and Political Hacks: Implications of the 2014 Sony Pictures Entertainment Hack
      • The Past, Present, and Future of the American Immigration System
      • The Path to a Global Internet
      • Threat from the East: China's Pivot to Latin America
      • State of Anarchy: The International Void Created by Maras in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras
      • Redefining Cuban Relations: A Closer Look at the End of the Cuban Embargo
      • The Dilemma of Mutual Understanding
      • The End of an Era: The Normalization of U.S.-Cuban Relations
      • Leader by Default: Why the Sun Has Yet to Set on American Global Leadership
      • Colombia and the FARC: Peace at Last?
      • Brazil’s Elections: The Long-Term Implications of a Tight Presidential Race
      • The Enduring Popularity of Rafael Correa and the New Left
      • The Secret Ingredient: Why Drones are Vital to U.S. Hegemony
      • Effects of Snowden’s NSA Leaks on U.S. Foreign Relations
      • The Failure of The United States’ Arab Spring Strategy
      • Apocalypse Postponed: The Enduring Importance of Maintaining the Arms Control Regime
      • Judicial Review or Institutionalized Racism?
      • Negotiating with North Korea: Try and Try Again
      • Celebrating Fifty Years of Diplomatic Gridlock: U.S.-Cuba Relations in 2012
      • Regional Integration and Private Sector Growth in Cuba
      • The Prospects of Slavery Reparations in the Caribbean
      • Protests Reflect Infrastructural Inadequacies in Brazil
      • History in the Making or a Recipe for Disaster? El Salvador’s Gang Truce Examined
      • Debating Iran: Can the United States Make a Deal with the Devil?
      • Priority for 21st Century Defense: A Sustainable U.S. Military Strategy
      • The Rise of Drones in American Foreign Policy
      • From a Dirt Road to a Green Cup: Brazil 2014
      • Leftward Shifts and Power Shifts: Latin America’s Pink Tide
    • Asia-Pacfic Section >
      • No Country for the Rohingya: An Explanation of the Rohingya Refugee Crisis
      • The Future of American Trade Fear in East Asia
      • Entering The Chinese Room: China's Quest to Lead a New World Order
      • A Second Red Wedding: The Complications of Sino-Russian Relations
      • The Break Up: China and North Korea’s Toxic Relationship
      • Instability in the Middle Kingdom: The Shaky Foundations of China's Rise
      • The New Red Scare: An Examination of Cross-Strait Skepticism
      • A Realistic Move: China's New Silk Road
      • The Cost of Voting: How Xi Jinping Simultaneously Increased Democracy and Authoritarianism
      • Fishing For Trouble: The Economic Costs of Conflict in the South China Sea
      • The Danger of the Thucydides Trap: Xi Jinping's Visit to the United States
      • David vs. Goliath: The Philippines-China Arbitration Case
      • Xi's Return to Maoism
      • A Cause for Optimism?: China’s Energy Policy Post-COP21
      • The Show Goes On: Vietnam's Balancing Act
      • Redefining The State: Nationalism and the Push for Constitutional Revision in Japan
      • China’s Resources Policy: Expanding Influence
      • China’s Maritime Strategy: The Pursuit of Regional Dominance
      • China’s Geo-economics: Politics of Inequality
      • China’s Transition of Power: Domestic Struggles for Political Dominance
      • Confrontations Between Tibetan Protestors and the CCP Police Continue
      • 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster and Aftermath
      • Why Would China Want a Democratized Hong Kong?
      • East Asian Regional Integration
      • Stronger Together: A Case for ASEAN Military Integration
      • Capitalism Fights to Survive in China’s Special Administrative Regions
      • China’s Increased Involvement in Afghanistan Divergent from U.S. Wants
      • The Future of the Tibetan Problem
      • The Geopolitical Implications of the Indo-Japanese Abe-Modi Summit
      • Australia Experiences Heightened Degree of Geopolitical Influence U.S. and China Eye Each Other’s Moves in the Asia Pacific
      • Xi Jinping’s AntiCorruption Campaign: Stalinist Purge, or Second Chance for the Chinese Communist Party?
      • South China Sea Territorial Disputes ‘Rock The Boat’ of Regional Security
    • Europe Section >
      • Nominal Interests: A Breakthrough in the Ongoing Name Dispute Between the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Greece
      • The Reinvention of the National Front
      • Democracy in Transition: Hungary's Descent into Authoritarianism
      • (Un)Orthodox Nationalism
      • Something is Rotting in the State of Denmark: Ethnic Nationalism Takes Root in Scandinavia
      • Blood, Oil, and Tears: Azerbaijan's Tradeoff Between Corruption and Growth
      • The Bear Awakens: Russia's Strategy to Sow Chaos in the West
      • Russia’s Return to Religion Signals Changes in Politics and Society, but Not Secularization
      • Spain: The Forgotten Frontier
      • Bye Bye Britain: Euroscepticism Threatens EU Solidarity in June Referendum
      • Europe's Migrant Dumping Ground: Serbia's Refugee Crisis
      • Regional Reconciliation: Evaluating Whether Cuba Will Join the OAS and the Subsequent Implications
      • Has Europe Got Milk?
      • Lifting the Iran Curtain: The Future of Economic Relations Between the EU and Tehran
      • Europe’s Take on the Rising Cost of Healthcare
      • Contrasting Eurozone Economies: The Good, the Bad, and the Corrupt
      • Europe's Take on Income Inequality
      • Russia’s Role in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Sustainer of Peace or Tension?
      • The Failure of Austerity
      • The Rise of Kazakhstan: A Solution for the EU’s Russian Energy Dependence?
      • Scotland After the Independence Referendum
      • Closing the European Security Gap
      • Europe Trading Up: The Strategic Importance of the TTIP
      • The UK to Tighten Immigration Restrictions
      • Old Powers, New Glory: U.K. and France’s Changing Roles in the New European Commission
      • Greece’s Political Pressure Cooker: the Rise of Radicalism
      • Caps Off: Analyzing the EU's Influence on Swiss Immigration Policy
      • Bulgaria and Romania’s Entry into the Schengen Treaty to be Further Postponed
      • Catalan Secession and Subsidiarity
      • The View from Independence Square
      • US-Russian Antagonism Reignited Over Human Rights Policy
      • The Dynamics of the Russia-China Relationship
      • European Action to Limit Aviation Greenhouse Gas Emission
    • Middle East and North Africa Section >
      • Confessionalism, the Rise of Hizbullah, and the May 2018 Elections in Lebanon
      • The Dilemma of Rebuilding the Cultural Heritage of Aleppo
      • Stars and Stripes in the Middle East: American Involvement in the Yemen Civil War
      • Unlikely Bedfellows: Israeli-Saudi Security Ties and the Middle East's Worst Kept Secret
      • The Constructed People: Kurdistan's Challenge to Iraqi Nation-Building
      • Globalism, Nationalism, and the Armenian Diaspora
      • The Turkish Coup Attempt: Was it an Erdogan Hoax?
      • Counterterrorism and Monarchical Power in Morocco
      • State and Familial Prostitution in Egypt
      • Post-Revolution Tunisia: The Challenges of Regional Inequality to the Political Transition
      • Examining Jordan's Influence in the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process
      • Democracy in Tunisia
      • A Cold Peace: The Future of Egyptian-Israeli Relations
      • Can He Do It? Examining the Significance of Hassan Rouhani Regarding Iranian Relations
      • The Iranian Interim Deal: Perspectives and Implications
      • Transcending the Sunni-Shia Divide; An Overview of Al Qaeda-Iranian Relations
      • Turkey: The Middle East’s “It” Country, or Has It Outgrown Its Fifteen Minutes of Fame?
      • Religious Minorities in the MENA: The Baha'is and Druze in Israel
      • The Invisible Hand Behind the Arab Spring
      • Egypt as a Litmus Test
      • Instability in Yemen: A Rebel Takeover
      • Hitting Home: Understanding the Appeal of the Islamic State in the West
      • Lessons From Afghanistan
      • The Role of the US in Mediating the Israeli- Palestinian Conflict
      • The Everlasting Struggle: The Genius of Erdogan’s Political Rhetoric
      • Libya: Before and After the Fall of Muammar Gaddafi
      • Recent NGO Crisis Exposes Divisions in Egyptian Politics
      • The Revolution Will Be Live Streamed: The Role of the Internet in the Arab Spring: The Role of the Internet in the Arab Spring
      • Lebanon to join the Arab Spring?
      • The Persian Gulf and U.S. Strategy: Past and Future
      • Disintigrating Under Pressure: Saudi-U.S. Relations and the Syrian Conflict
      • Assessing the Effectiveness of Micro-finance Institutions in Jordan and Beyond
      • Prosecution, Politics, and Peace: Palestine’s Admittance to the International Criminal Court
    • Central and South Asia Section >
      • GST: India's Largest Economic Reform Since 1992
      • Investing in Kazakhstan: A Model of Chinese Power Acquisition
      • The Rise of Intolerance in India
      • The Past Guiding the Present: How Mongolia’s Soviet Past is Shaping its Development in the 21st Century
      • Will India Choose Israeli Technology or Iranian Oil?
      • The 2014 Indian Elections: The Rise of the BJP
      • Examining Modi's Defense Policy
      • The Indo-U.S. Relationship: Through the Lens of Republic Day
      • Hegemon Games: The Indo-Pak Question
      • Growing Forces: Foreign Investment in Central Asia
      • The Rupee Stumbles – What’s India’s Next Step?
      • The Enemy Behind the Gates: Pakistan's Teetering Talks
      • Indian Foreign Policy: In Search of a Direction
      • The Collapse of the India-Pakistan Talks
      • The Global Race to Myanmar
      • Trade: Is This the Way Ahead for Resolving Outstanding Disputes Between India and Pakistan?
    • Theme Section >
      • Economic Effects of Brexit: Should The UK Leave?
      • Will Demographics Drive China’s Debt Towards Disaster?
      • Using Realpolitik to Understand American Involvement in NATO
      • Security, Money, and Culture: The Role of the WTO in the Resilience of the U.S.-Japan Alliance
      • The Effects of China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Influence, Trade, and Resources
      • The Responsibility to Protect: A Well-Meaning yet Inadequate Solution to the Battle Between Sovereignty and Humanitarian Intervention
      • Disconnecting Dissent: The Dilemma of Privatized Public Speech and Free Information Online
      • Who Owns the Internet?: Control and Mastery of the New Public Sphere
      • Online Community Building: The Emotional, Social, and Political Challenges of Adapting to a New Way of Being Together
      • “The Great Firewall” as an Inefficient Barrier
      • Borderline Open: The Barriers of Schengen
      • The World’s Most Dangerous Border: Refugees in the Mediterranean Are Fighting for Their Lives
      • Overcoming the Physical Barriers of Natural Disasters: Despair and Hope in post-Hurricane Dominica
      • From Past to Present: The Porous Nature of the DRC’s Borders
      • India's Struggle for Gender Equality
      • A False Sense of Protection: Failure of the UN to Address Allegations of Sexual Assault Against Peacekeepers
      • Scapegoats of Politics: How the Malaysian Transgender Community Fell Victim to the Politicization of Islam
      • Adversity and Perseverance: The Story of Bangladesh's Garment Worker
      • "Bye, Honey!": Brazilian Women Fight for Their Rights After Dilma Rousseff's Impeachment
      • Mexico's Unstable Democracy: Self-Defense Groups, Cartels, and the Struggle Over the Rule of Law
      • Obama to Trump: Immigration Policy Rhetoric and Resistance
      • Translating Democratic Theory into Constitutional Design: A Conversation with Professor Jefferey A. Lenowitz
      • The Reign In Spain: Analyzing the Catalan Threat to European Democratic Order
      • Reaching for the Sky: The New Age of Connection in Sri Lanka
      • The Battle for Ukraine
      • North Korea’s Strategy of Escalating Threats and Its Problems
      • Accusations of Pinkwashing in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
      • Economies in Transformation, A Continent in Transition
      • The Dynastic Dictatorship Continued: The Internal Dynamics of North Korea and What to Expect From the New Leader
      • Russia's Gas Diplomacy
      • The "Oldest Profession" Organizes: A Conversation with Professor Gowri Vijayakumar
      • An Amazonian Legacy of Military Rule
      • Soldiers of Destiny, Deferred: Marriage Equality and Reproductive Rights in Irish Politics
      • A Tale of Two Courts: Why Chinese Capitalism Does Not Come With the Rule of Law
      • A Failure to Rise to the Occasion: Syria and the Future of “Responsibility to Protect”
      • South Sudan: Democracy Or Despair
      • Protests and Repression in a Digital Age
      • Wiping the Slate Clean: Modi's Water Conundrum
      • Increasing Oil Production: A Sound Approach to Achieving U.S. Energy Independence?
      • Water's Influence on Middle Eastern Policy: A Conversation with Dr. Mahmoud Abu-Allaban
      • A New Era for the Nile: The Effects of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
      • Getting Past the Green Monster: An Analysis of Germany's Energy Transition
      • Theme Section Graphics
      • The African Union and a New Scramble: A Continent in Transition
      • Regional Perspectives
      • Pervasive Issues in China's Continued Urbanization
      • Art, Power, Politics, and Protest in Saudi Arabia
      • Should Europe Brace Itself for Brexit
      • Energy Analysis
      • Composition & Organs
      • African Union Timeline
      • The Rohingya Refugee Crisis
      • Interview with Dr. Sung-Yoon Lee, Kim Koo-Korea Foundation Professor in Korean Studies
      • A Historical and Political Understanding of Aid: The Implications and Conditions of Aid Packages
      • Park Geun-hye’s “New Kind of Korea” Prospects for Re-envisioned Inter-Korean Relations
      • Interview with Professor Nyangoni
      • Interview With Professor Padraig Carmody of Trinity College of Dublin, Author of The New Scramble for Africa
      • Timeline of U.S. Refugee Resettlement
      • A closer look into North Korea
      • How Does North Korea Stack Up?
      • According to the Expert: Interview With Professor Eva Bellin
      • Fulfilling an Ideological Destiny? An Insight into United States Policy Regarding the Syrian Conflict
      • PIS Off: Polish Women Mobilize to Reject Tightening of Abortion Restrictions
      • Brain Drain in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Downside of Migration
      • Grand Master and Pawns: Looking at the United States and Russia
      • In Putin’s Element: Why the U.S. Needs to Let Russia Take the Lead in Destroying Syria’s Chemical Weapons
      • In Syria, It’s the End of the Line
      • Greenback Boogie: The Story of Remittances from Central Asian Immigrants in Russia
      • Regional Perspectives
      • The EU as a Passive Actor
      • In Search of Home: The Impact of Syrian Refugees on the International Community
      • Vladimir Putin: The New Leader of the Free World?
      • Modi's Pakistan Strategy
      • Resistance Infographic
      • Mexico's Other Border: Human Rights Abuses of the Trans-North American Migrant Crisis
      • Most Significant Refugee Producing Countries
      • Syrian Conflict Statistics
      • The View From Moscow: Contention and Cooperation in the Middle East
      • A Discussion of the EU with Lorenzo Bini Smaghi
      • EU Timeline
      • Turkey's Membership in the EU: A Holy Venture?
      • Al-Shabaab and the Threats Posed to International Peace and Security
      • Interview with Professor Robert J. Art
      • Instability and Nationalism: Why Ecuador's Colombian Refugees Face Discrimination
      • ISIS Timeline
      • Interview with Professor Gary Jefferson
      • Contemporary Cyber-Terrorism
      • ISIS’ Rise to Prominence and Implications for the Future: A Conversation with Ambassador Dennis Ross
      • Qatar: An Uncertain Ally Against IS
      • Red to Pink: The Continued Evolution of the Chinese Internet Space
      • Russia’s Separatist Subversions: Return of the Steamroller, or Running Out of Steam?
      • Shifting Sands: Arab Tacit Support of Israel during the Recent Gaza Conflict
      • North Korea’s Other Crisis
      • China’s Korean Dilemma
      • State-Sponsored Separatism: the Specter of Russian Influence in Post-Revolution Ukraine
      • The Iraqi Crisis: The Effects of Sectarian Politics and Religious Divides
      • The Islamic State and the Rise of Western Jihadism: Interview with Professor Jytte Klausen
      • Regions Under Threat By Global Climate Change
    • Afro and African American Studies >
      • Malcolm X: A Misunderstood Legacy
    • Sociology >
      • The Implications of the Melting Pot: Examining the Political Socialization Process for Children of Immigrants
      • The Modern WelfareWarfare Nexus
    • Economics >
      • The Demise of Middle-Class America: Corporate-Performance Focused Development, Automation, and the Middle-Class Squeeze
      • Equity and Efficiency: Reconsidering the “Big Tradeoff”
      • Low Cost Carriers and the Future of Air Travel in Asia
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