BRANDEIS JOURNAL OF POLITICS
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    • Letter From the Editors
    • Debt As A Tool Of Inequity
    • A Comparison of Unemployment Insurance In Western Europe & The United States
    • Charter Schools: One Path To The American Dream
    • Re-examining Private Education And Social Inequality In Chile
    • Bargaining Against Americans: How Public Sector Unions Undermine Accountability And Hurt Citizens
    • Could the European Union’s Agricultural Policy Serve as a Framework For US Agricultural Policy
    • Reducing Emissions in Developing Nations
    • No-Excuse Absentee Voting: A Fair Equalizer
    • Abortion Rights: Safeguarding Women’s Liberty
    • Diplomatic Immunity: Outdated, Unethical, And In Need of Reform
  • Archive
    • Letters From the Editor >
      • Fall 2018
      • Spring 2019
    • Sub-Saharan Africa Section >
      • Burgeoning Cities and Suffering Publics: The Lagosian Infrastructure Trade-Off
      • An Explosive Climate: Spiraling Security Politics in the Lake Chad Basin
      • Africa's Digital Advance
      • The Language of Crisis
      • The African Gold Rush
      • Adowa Dance: Black Feminist Practice
      • The Panda’s Approach to Pandemonium: Managing Corruption in Nigeria
      • Student Movements in South Africa: Decolonization, Language, and Racial Justice
      • Foreign Investment in Africa: A Legacy of Unequal Relationships
      • The Politics of Inclusion
      • Uganda: The Politics of Persecution
      • The Politics of Destabilization: Interpreting Al Shabaab’s “Terrorist Attack” in Kenya
      • Senegal's Arduous Path Forward
      • Political Relations with Major Powers
      • A Half-Hearted Commitment to the Central African Republic
      • A Conflict-Free Congo: Can Corporations Revise Their Use of Conflict Minerals?
      • Rituals or Rights? The Politics of Female Genital Modification in Somalia
      • Mali: Tensions Between Islam, Ethnic Differences and the State
      • Manufactured Hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa
      • Two Nigerias in Conflict: The Emergence of Boko Haram and its Implications for Nigerian Stability
      • US-Africa Summit: A Turning Point in Relations
      • A Change in Leadership at a Critical Period
      • The African Union and the International Criminal Court: Selective Justice?
      • Is the Fairytale Over For South Africa?
      • Interpreting US AFRICOM Toward a Future of Military Engagement on the African Continent
      • From Decentralization to Secession: Tuareg Rebels and the Quest for Balance in Mali
      • The Dragon's Gold: Chinese Investment in Africa
      • Deconstructing Boko Haram: Institutional Reform on the Path to Peace
      • Oil Money: Ghana’s Economic Considerations in the Global Oil Surplus
      • Protests in Ethiopia
      • Africa's Infrastructure: Leapfrogging the Traditional
    • Americas Section >
      • Three Kinds of Representation: The Case of Argentinian Women in Congress
      • American Military Presence in Okinawa: An Obsolete Endeavor
      • Abolish ICE: A History of the Agency and The New Movement for its Elimination
      • I Don’t Want to Talk About Vietnam”: U.S. Counterinsurgency between Saigon and Baghdad
      • Refugees in Canada: A Closer Look at the Safe Third Country Agreement
      • Sovereignty Under Attack?: The Costa Rican Case
      • Who, When, and How? Social Democracy Awaits in Cuba
      • Ni Una Menos: Twitter's Role in Fighting Femicide in Argentina
      • American Saber-Rattling Not Enough to Destroy Trade Relations with Canada
      • The Beaver and the Dragon: Canada's Strategic Embrace of China
      • Room For Improvement: Macri’s Economic Reforms, Argentine Political History, and the Argentinian Poor’s Protests
      • The More, The Merrier: Democracy, Corruption, and Impunity in Honduras
      • The Problem of Bouterse
      • The Socio-Economic Risk Factors that Culminated in the Zika Virus Outbreak
      • Trump’s Unfettered Populism and What It Could Mean for U.S. Foreign Relations
      • Cyber Attacks and Political Hacks: Implications of the 2014 Sony Pictures Entertainment Hack
      • The Past, Present, and Future of the American Immigration System
      • The Path to a Global Internet
      • Threat from the East: China's Pivot to Latin America
      • State of Anarchy: The International Void Created by Maras in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras
      • Redefining Cuban Relations: A Closer Look at the End of the Cuban Embargo
      • The Dilemma of Mutual Understanding
      • The End of an Era: The Normalization of U.S.-Cuban Relations
      • Leader by Default: Why the Sun Has Yet to Set on American Global Leadership
      • Colombia and the FARC: Peace at Last?
      • Brazil’s Elections: The Long-Term Implications of a Tight Presidential Race
      • The Enduring Popularity of Rafael Correa and the New Left
      • The Secret Ingredient: Why Drones are Vital to U.S. Hegemony
      • Effects of Snowden’s NSA Leaks on U.S. Foreign Relations
      • The Failure of The United States’ Arab Spring Strategy
      • Apocalypse Postponed: The Enduring Importance of Maintaining the Arms Control Regime
      • Judicial Review or Institutionalized Racism?
      • Negotiating with North Korea: Try and Try Again
      • Celebrating Fifty Years of Diplomatic Gridlock: U.S.-Cuba Relations in 2012
      • Regional Integration and Private Sector Growth in Cuba
      • The Prospects of Slavery Reparations in the Caribbean
      • Protests Reflect Infrastructural Inadequacies in Brazil
      • History in the Making or a Recipe for Disaster? El Salvador’s Gang Truce Examined
      • Debating Iran: Can the United States Make a Deal with the Devil?
      • Priority for 21st Century Defense: A Sustainable U.S. Military Strategy
      • The Rise of Drones in American Foreign Policy
      • From a Dirt Road to a Green Cup: Brazil 2014
      • Leftward Shifts and Power Shifts: Latin America’s Pink Tide
    • Asia-Pacfic Section >
      • No Country for the Rohingya: An Explanation of the Rohingya Refugee Crisis
      • The Future of American Trade Fear in East Asia
      • Entering The Chinese Room: China's Quest to Lead a New World Order
      • A Second Red Wedding: The Complications of Sino-Russian Relations
      • The Break Up: China and North Korea’s Toxic Relationship
      • Instability in the Middle Kingdom: The Shaky Foundations of China's Rise
      • The New Red Scare: An Examination of Cross-Strait Skepticism
      • A Realistic Move: China's New Silk Road
      • The Cost of Voting: How Xi Jinping Simultaneously Increased Democracy and Authoritarianism
      • Fishing For Trouble: The Economic Costs of Conflict in the South China Sea
      • The Danger of the Thucydides Trap: Xi Jinping's Visit to the United States
      • David vs. Goliath: The Philippines-China Arbitration Case
      • Xi's Return to Maoism
      • A Cause for Optimism?: China’s Energy Policy Post-COP21
      • The Show Goes On: Vietnam's Balancing Act
      • Redefining The State: Nationalism and the Push for Constitutional Revision in Japan
      • China’s Resources Policy: Expanding Influence
      • China’s Maritime Strategy: The Pursuit of Regional Dominance
      • China’s Geo-economics: Politics of Inequality
      • China’s Transition of Power: Domestic Struggles for Political Dominance
      • Confrontations Between Tibetan Protestors and the CCP Police Continue
      • 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster and Aftermath
      • Why Would China Want a Democratized Hong Kong?
      • East Asian Regional Integration
      • Stronger Together: A Case for ASEAN Military Integration
      • Capitalism Fights to Survive in China’s Special Administrative Regions
      • China’s Increased Involvement in Afghanistan Divergent from U.S. Wants
      • The Future of the Tibetan Problem
      • The Geopolitical Implications of the Indo-Japanese Abe-Modi Summit
      • Australia Experiences Heightened Degree of Geopolitical Influence U.S. and China Eye Each Other’s Moves in the Asia Pacific
      • Xi Jinping’s AntiCorruption Campaign: Stalinist Purge, or Second Chance for the Chinese Communist Party?
      • South China Sea Territorial Disputes ‘Rock The Boat’ of Regional Security
    • Europe Section >
      • Nominal Interests: A Breakthrough in the Ongoing Name Dispute Between the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Greece
      • The Reinvention of the National Front
      • Democracy in Transition: Hungary's Descent into Authoritarianism
      • (Un)Orthodox Nationalism
      • Something is Rotting in the State of Denmark: Ethnic Nationalism Takes Root in Scandinavia
      • Blood, Oil, and Tears: Azerbaijan's Tradeoff Between Corruption and Growth
      • The Bear Awakens: Russia's Strategy to Sow Chaos in the West
      • Russia’s Return to Religion Signals Changes in Politics and Society, but Not Secularization
      • Spain: The Forgotten Frontier
      • Bye Bye Britain: Euroscepticism Threatens EU Solidarity in June Referendum
      • Europe's Migrant Dumping Ground: Serbia's Refugee Crisis
      • Regional Reconciliation: Evaluating Whether Cuba Will Join the OAS and the Subsequent Implications
      • Has Europe Got Milk?
      • Lifting the Iran Curtain: The Future of Economic Relations Between the EU and Tehran
      • Europe’s Take on the Rising Cost of Healthcare
      • Contrasting Eurozone Economies: The Good, the Bad, and the Corrupt
      • Europe's Take on Income Inequality
      • Russia’s Role in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Sustainer of Peace or Tension?
      • The Failure of Austerity
      • The Rise of Kazakhstan: A Solution for the EU’s Russian Energy Dependence?
      • Scotland After the Independence Referendum
      • Closing the European Security Gap
      • Europe Trading Up: The Strategic Importance of the TTIP
      • The UK to Tighten Immigration Restrictions
      • Old Powers, New Glory: U.K. and France’s Changing Roles in the New European Commission
      • Greece’s Political Pressure Cooker: the Rise of Radicalism
      • Caps Off: Analyzing the EU's Influence on Swiss Immigration Policy
      • Bulgaria and Romania’s Entry into the Schengen Treaty to be Further Postponed
      • Catalan Secession and Subsidiarity
      • The View from Independence Square
      • US-Russian Antagonism Reignited Over Human Rights Policy
      • The Dynamics of the Russia-China Relationship
      • European Action to Limit Aviation Greenhouse Gas Emission
    • Middle East and North Africa Section >
      • Confessionalism, the Rise of Hizbullah, and the May 2018 Elections in Lebanon
      • The Dilemma of Rebuilding the Cultural Heritage of Aleppo
      • Stars and Stripes in the Middle East: American Involvement in the Yemen Civil War
      • Unlikely Bedfellows: Israeli-Saudi Security Ties and the Middle East's Worst Kept Secret
      • The Constructed People: Kurdistan's Challenge to Iraqi Nation-Building
      • Globalism, Nationalism, and the Armenian Diaspora
      • The Turkish Coup Attempt: Was it an Erdogan Hoax?
      • Counterterrorism and Monarchical Power in Morocco
      • State and Familial Prostitution in Egypt
      • Post-Revolution Tunisia: The Challenges of Regional Inequality to the Political Transition
      • Examining Jordan's Influence in the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process
      • Democracy in Tunisia
      • A Cold Peace: The Future of Egyptian-Israeli Relations
      • Can He Do It? Examining the Significance of Hassan Rouhani Regarding Iranian Relations
      • The Iranian Interim Deal: Perspectives and Implications
      • Transcending the Sunni-Shia Divide; An Overview of Al Qaeda-Iranian Relations
      • Turkey: The Middle East’s “It” Country, or Has It Outgrown Its Fifteen Minutes of Fame?
      • Religious Minorities in the MENA: The Baha'is and Druze in Israel
      • The Invisible Hand Behind the Arab Spring
      • Egypt as a Litmus Test
      • Instability in Yemen: A Rebel Takeover
      • Hitting Home: Understanding the Appeal of the Islamic State in the West
      • Lessons From Afghanistan
      • The Role of the US in Mediating the Israeli- Palestinian Conflict
      • The Everlasting Struggle: The Genius of Erdogan’s Political Rhetoric
      • Libya: Before and After the Fall of Muammar Gaddafi
      • Recent NGO Crisis Exposes Divisions in Egyptian Politics
      • The Revolution Will Be Live Streamed: The Role of the Internet in the Arab Spring: The Role of the Internet in the Arab Spring
      • Lebanon to join the Arab Spring?
      • The Persian Gulf and U.S. Strategy: Past and Future
      • Disintigrating Under Pressure: Saudi-U.S. Relations and the Syrian Conflict
      • Assessing the Effectiveness of Micro-finance Institutions in Jordan and Beyond
      • Prosecution, Politics, and Peace: Palestine’s Admittance to the International Criminal Court
    • Central and South Asia Section >
      • GST: India's Largest Economic Reform Since 1992
      • Investing in Kazakhstan: A Model of Chinese Power Acquisition
      • The Rise of Intolerance in India
      • The Past Guiding the Present: How Mongolia’s Soviet Past is Shaping its Development in the 21st Century
      • Will India Choose Israeli Technology or Iranian Oil?
      • The 2014 Indian Elections: The Rise of the BJP
      • Examining Modi's Defense Policy
      • The Indo-U.S. Relationship: Through the Lens of Republic Day
      • Hegemon Games: The Indo-Pak Question
      • Growing Forces: Foreign Investment in Central Asia
      • The Rupee Stumbles – What’s India’s Next Step?
      • The Enemy Behind the Gates: Pakistan's Teetering Talks
      • Indian Foreign Policy: In Search of a Direction
      • The Collapse of the India-Pakistan Talks
      • The Global Race to Myanmar
      • Trade: Is This the Way Ahead for Resolving Outstanding Disputes Between India and Pakistan?
    • Theme Section >
      • Economic Effects of Brexit: Should The UK Leave?
      • Will Demographics Drive China’s Debt Towards Disaster?
      • Using Realpolitik to Understand American Involvement in NATO
      • Security, Money, and Culture: The Role of the WTO in the Resilience of the U.S.-Japan Alliance
      • The Effects of China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Influence, Trade, and Resources
      • The Responsibility to Protect: A Well-Meaning yet Inadequate Solution to the Battle Between Sovereignty and Humanitarian Intervention
      • Disconnecting Dissent: The Dilemma of Privatized Public Speech and Free Information Online
      • Who Owns the Internet?: Control and Mastery of the New Public Sphere
      • Online Community Building: The Emotional, Social, and Political Challenges of Adapting to a New Way of Being Together
      • “The Great Firewall” as an Inefficient Barrier
      • Borderline Open: The Barriers of Schengen
      • The World’s Most Dangerous Border: Refugees in the Mediterranean Are Fighting for Their Lives
      • Overcoming the Physical Barriers of Natural Disasters: Despair and Hope in post-Hurricane Dominica
      • From Past to Present: The Porous Nature of the DRC’s Borders
      • India's Struggle for Gender Equality
      • A False Sense of Protection: Failure of the UN to Address Allegations of Sexual Assault Against Peacekeepers
      • Scapegoats of Politics: How the Malaysian Transgender Community Fell Victim to the Politicization of Islam
      • Adversity and Perseverance: The Story of Bangladesh's Garment Worker
      • "Bye, Honey!": Brazilian Women Fight for Their Rights After Dilma Rousseff's Impeachment
      • Mexico's Unstable Democracy: Self-Defense Groups, Cartels, and the Struggle Over the Rule of Law
      • Obama to Trump: Immigration Policy Rhetoric and Resistance
      • Translating Democratic Theory into Constitutional Design: A Conversation with Professor Jefferey A. Lenowitz
      • The Reign In Spain: Analyzing the Catalan Threat to European Democratic Order
      • Reaching for the Sky: The New Age of Connection in Sri Lanka
      • The Battle for Ukraine
      • North Korea’s Strategy of Escalating Threats and Its Problems
      • Accusations of Pinkwashing in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
      • Economies in Transformation, A Continent in Transition
      • The Dynastic Dictatorship Continued: The Internal Dynamics of North Korea and What to Expect From the New Leader
      • Russia's Gas Diplomacy
      • The "Oldest Profession" Organizes: A Conversation with Professor Gowri Vijayakumar
      • An Amazonian Legacy of Military Rule
      • Soldiers of Destiny, Deferred: Marriage Equality and Reproductive Rights in Irish Politics
      • A Tale of Two Courts: Why Chinese Capitalism Does Not Come With the Rule of Law
      • A Failure to Rise to the Occasion: Syria and the Future of “Responsibility to Protect”
      • South Sudan: Democracy Or Despair
      • Protests and Repression in a Digital Age
      • Wiping the Slate Clean: Modi's Water Conundrum
      • Increasing Oil Production: A Sound Approach to Achieving U.S. Energy Independence?
      • Water's Influence on Middle Eastern Policy: A Conversation with Dr. Mahmoud Abu-Allaban
      • A New Era for the Nile: The Effects of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
      • Getting Past the Green Monster: An Analysis of Germany's Energy Transition
      • Theme Section Graphics
      • The African Union and a New Scramble: A Continent in Transition
      • Regional Perspectives
      • Pervasive Issues in China's Continued Urbanization
      • Art, Power, Politics, and Protest in Saudi Arabia
      • Should Europe Brace Itself for Brexit
      • Energy Analysis
      • Composition & Organs
      • African Union Timeline
      • The Rohingya Refugee Crisis
      • Interview with Dr. Sung-Yoon Lee, Kim Koo-Korea Foundation Professor in Korean Studies
      • A Historical and Political Understanding of Aid: The Implications and Conditions of Aid Packages
      • Park Geun-hye’s “New Kind of Korea” Prospects for Re-envisioned Inter-Korean Relations
      • Interview with Professor Nyangoni
      • Interview With Professor Padraig Carmody of Trinity College of Dublin, Author of The New Scramble for Africa
      • Timeline of U.S. Refugee Resettlement
      • A closer look into North Korea
      • How Does North Korea Stack Up?
      • According to the Expert: Interview With Professor Eva Bellin
      • Fulfilling an Ideological Destiny? An Insight into United States Policy Regarding the Syrian Conflict
      • PIS Off: Polish Women Mobilize to Reject Tightening of Abortion Restrictions
      • Brain Drain in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Downside of Migration
      • Grand Master and Pawns: Looking at the United States and Russia
      • In Putin’s Element: Why the U.S. Needs to Let Russia Take the Lead in Destroying Syria’s Chemical Weapons
      • In Syria, It’s the End of the Line
      • Greenback Boogie: The Story of Remittances from Central Asian Immigrants in Russia
      • Regional Perspectives
      • The EU as a Passive Actor
      • In Search of Home: The Impact of Syrian Refugees on the International Community
      • Vladimir Putin: The New Leader of the Free World?
      • Modi's Pakistan Strategy
      • Resistance Infographic
      • Mexico's Other Border: Human Rights Abuses of the Trans-North American Migrant Crisis
      • Most Significant Refugee Producing Countries
      • Syrian Conflict Statistics
      • The View From Moscow: Contention and Cooperation in the Middle East
      • A Discussion of the EU with Lorenzo Bini Smaghi
      • EU Timeline
      • Turkey's Membership in the EU: A Holy Venture?
      • Al-Shabaab and the Threats Posed to International Peace and Security
      • Interview with Professor Robert J. Art
      • Instability and Nationalism: Why Ecuador's Colombian Refugees Face Discrimination
      • ISIS Timeline
      • Interview with Professor Gary Jefferson
      • Contemporary Cyber-Terrorism
      • ISIS’ Rise to Prominence and Implications for the Future: A Conversation with Ambassador Dennis Ross
      • Qatar: An Uncertain Ally Against IS
      • Red to Pink: The Continued Evolution of the Chinese Internet Space
      • Russia’s Separatist Subversions: Return of the Steamroller, or Running Out of Steam?
      • Shifting Sands: Arab Tacit Support of Israel during the Recent Gaza Conflict
      • North Korea’s Other Crisis
      • China’s Korean Dilemma
      • State-Sponsored Separatism: the Specter of Russian Influence in Post-Revolution Ukraine
      • The Iraqi Crisis: The Effects of Sectarian Politics and Religious Divides
      • The Islamic State and the Rise of Western Jihadism: Interview with Professor Jytte Klausen
      • Regions Under Threat By Global Climate Change
    • Afro and African American Studies >
      • Malcolm X: A Misunderstood Legacy
    • Sociology >
      • The Implications of the Melting Pot: Examining the Political Socialization Process for Children of Immigrants
      • The Modern WelfareWarfare Nexus
    • Economics >
      • The Demise of Middle-Class America: Corporate-Performance Focused Development, Automation, and the Middle-Class Squeeze
      • Equity and Efficiency: Reconsidering the “Big Tradeoff”
      • Low Cost Carriers and the Future of Air Travel in Asia
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The Persian Gulf and U.S. Strategy: Past and Future
   by Sungtae Park


    The United States finally withdrew from Iraq in December of 2011. While the grueling occupation of Iraq has finally come to an end, the geopolitical order of the Persian Gulf is in disarray and is skewed in favor of Iran more than ever – in fact for the first time in more than thirteen hundred years. Because the United States has no viable strategy to counterbalance Iran in the short term, it must reassess its strategy in the region and incorporate Iran in the region’s geopolitical order, until a strategy to counterbalance Tehran can be found.

     Scholars often trace back the Persian Gulf ’s contemporary geopolitical order to the fall of the Shah’s regime in 1979 or to the fall of the Ottoman Empire after World War I. In truth, the origin of the order goes much further back to the end of Arab domination of Iran in the 10th century. Before that time, the entire Middle East, not just the Persian Gulf, was dominated by Iranian empires for more than a thousand years, beginning in the 6th century B.C. with the Achaemenid Empire (the very empire famous for its wars with the Greeks) and ending with the decline and eventually the fall of the Sassanid Empire in the 7th century A.D. Iranian domination of the region was possible because Arabs were fragmented among numerous tribes and under no single political authority. Muslim conquests of the 7th century, however, completely reconfigured the geopolitical order of the Middle East by uniting the fragmented Arab tribes under the banner of Islam. A bloc of power that could counterbalance Iran’s influence emerged to its west and eventually conquered Iran itself. Iranians eventually rid themselves of Arab domination in the 10th century. Nonetheless, the days of Iranian domination over the whole of the Middle East was effectively over. Since then, every attempt by Iran to expand its influence westward were always checked by some form of political authority, whether it was an Arab caliphate, the Ottoman Empire, or Iraq under Saddam Hussein – until the United States destroyed the Iraqi power in 2003.

    For decades up until 2003, the United States had been tirelessly working to ensure that a balance of power existed between Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia so that no one state could dominate the region’s oil wealth. Although the United States only imports eight percent of its total oil supply from the Persian Gulf, a stable flow of oil from the region is a critical factor in ensuring the stability of the global economic system in which the United States  plays a key part. Conversely, a state in control of such resources could acquire much political leverage over oil dependent industrial economies. When revolutionary Iran in the 80s was perceived as a threat, the United States, along with Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Arab states, supported Saddam Hussein against Ayatollah Khomeini during a brutal eight year war. The United States wanted both Iran and Iraq weakened so that neither state would emerge powerful from the war to threaten the geopolitical order of the region, as Henry Kissinger would remark: “Too bad they can’t both lose.” When Saddam Hussein invaded and then occupied Kuwait in 1990 and then seemingly threatened the oil giant Saudi Arabia, the United States acted to kick out the dictator but did not topple his regime out of the fear that the balance of power in the region would be completely destroyed. Between 1991 and 2003, the United States attempted to maintain a shaky balance of power between Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia with the policy of “dual containment” (containing both Iran and Iraq, while protecting the Gulf Cooperation Council States).

    The policy of dual containment, which included various mechanisms such as sanctions and no-fly zones, however, ultimately turned out to be a contradictory and unsustainable policy. Iran was a state three times larger in geographic area and three times more populous than Iraq. In order to counterbalance Iran, Iraq had to be strengthened. On the other hand, a strong Iraq could become a threat to the GCC again. Naturally, Saddam Hussein himself felt threatened by Iraq’s large eastern neighbor and attempted desperately to break out of the sanctions regime imposed on him by the international community. Because of the sanctions imposed on him, the Iraqi dictator could not regain his military power and resorted to pretending that he possessed weapons of mass destruction, as revealed during the FBI interrogation after he was captured at the end of 2003. If he appeared weak, Saddam Hussein believed that Iranians would politically intimidate him, subvert him from within, or launch an invasion against him. His defiance against the international community during the 90s was actually a desperate but a wholly natural attempt to strengthen himself against Iran.

     The United States, on the other hand, had a completely different image of Saddam Hussein. The United States saw in Saddam Hussein a risk-taking and aggressive dictator, who had an ambition to become the leader of the Arab world, which was indeed true, although his drive to attain regional leadership was not the primary factor in his desire to break out of the international sanctions regime and rearm. His attempt to assassinate former-President George H.W. Bush in Kuwait reinforced the perception that Saddam Hussein was not a rationale man but a bloodthirsty monster comparable to Hitler. Saddam Hussein’s attempt to break out of the international sanctions regime was seen as a renewed attempt to invade his small but rich neighbors and enlarge his power in the region. This perception was reinforced when Saddam Hussein himself made threats against the GCC states. Washington did not understand that the Iraqi dictator feared Iran even more than the United States. Nonetheless, the United States during the 90s could not form an effective response beyond launching airstrikes and signing the Iraq Liberation Act to punish Saddam Hussein’s violation of the sanctions regime because the United States, enjoying years of high economic growth during the 90s, could not muster the political will for a strong response. The weak response by the United States further emboldened Saddam Hussein to chip away at the shaky sanctions regime. By 2002, the dual containment strategy had failed as the sanctions regimes were nearly all breaking down, and Saddam Hussein was perceived to be on the verge of regaining his military power.

     In 2000s, Saddam Hussein continued to pretend that he possessed weapons of mass destruction in order to intimidate his Iranian neighbors, believing that the United States did not have the political will to take a strong action. One particular event, however, gave the United States the political will to act: The September 11th terrorist attack. The Bush administration was able to link the threat of Al-Qaeda to the weapons of mass destruction supposedly possessed by Saddam Hussein and gain public support for the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Given the fact that Saddam Hussein and Al-Qaeda saw each other as threats, the Bush administration most likely did not actually believe that they were working together. One must also understand that the perception of threat posed by Iraq did not suddenly materialize with the September 11th attack. All throughout the 90s, the United States saw Saddam Hussein as the number one destabilizing factor in the Persian Gulf and wanted to overthrow or contain him. The perception that the Bush administration was particularly hawkish with regard to Iraq is also not true, given that Al Gore was one of the most hawkish politicians on the issue of Saddam Hussein. Even after the United States invaded Afghanistan, however, Saddam Hussein did not believe (and not without a good reason) that the United States possessed the political will to invade Iraq with ground troops. The actual fighting on land in Afghanistan was done by the Northern Alliance, an alliance of Afghan tribes opposed to the Taliban, while the United States simply provided air support. Seeing this, Saddam Hussein continued to believe that the United States would not dare launch a ground invasion of Iraq even until the very moment of the attack.

     The U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 was supposed to be the solution to the contradictory and unsustainable policy of dual containment. The expectation was that Saddam Hussein, if allowed to rearm, would inevitably pose a threat to the GCC and had to be prevented from doing so. The United States believed that toppling Saddam Hussein and installing a pro- U.S. regime in Baghdad could stabilize and redefine the geopolitical order of the Persian Gulf region in its favor. If everything turned out as planned (for the record: which it usually never happens), the United States would have been able to strengthen the friendly regime in Baghdad against Iran and at the same time not worry about Iraq threatening the GCC states, ensuring the Persian Gulf ’s stability. The result of the invasion was the exact opposite of what was intended, however. The United States failed to turn Iraq into a friendly and strong state. Instead, Iraq continues to suffer from violent sectarian conflicts, and Iranian influence pervades in Iraq more than ever, while the balance of power in the Persian Gulf is skewed in favor of Iran. For the first time in more than thirteen thousand years, Iran faces a weak and divided Iraq, while Tehran has been touting its supposedly peaceful nuclear program and engaging in political intimidation of the GCC states, even though they host a small contingent of U.S. troops. The current geopolitical order in the region presents a perfect chance for Iran to pursue its historical dream of expanding its influence westward and be recognized as a major power in the region.

    The United States in the short term has no viable strategy to restore the balance of power in the Persian Gulf because Iraq is too weak and divided, while the GCC states do not even have the potential to counterbalance Iran. On the other hand, the United States at the moment does not have the political will to bring a large contingent of troops to the region. An alternative strategy that the United States could pursue is to seek a rapprochement with Iran and to incorporate Iran into the region’s political process. Since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, the United States has been doing its utmost to shut Iran out of the political process in the region unless particular needs arise, instead relying mostly on Saudi Arabia. Iran is a state with a population three times larger than Saudi Arabia’s and literally sits on the key waterway of the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly a third of the world’s sea-born oil transits. Iran’s economy, despite all the sanctions, is nearly as large as the economy of Saudi Arabia. If Iran was allowed to develop normally, its economy would be much more powerful than Saudi Arabia’s. As such, Iran naturally sees itself as the region’s leader. The idea of shutting Iran out of the geopolitical order in the Persian Gulf is as absurd as how the United States attempted to shut out China under Mao Zedong out of the political process in East Asia for nearly two decades before Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger took a bold step to bring China back into East Asia’s geopolitical order. Bringing Iran into the Persian Gulf ’s geopolitical order would not be capitulating to Tehran, as some would argue, but in fact would be restoring the natural state of order in the region, especially since the United States currently does not have a way to counterbalance Iran.

    Some argue that the stability in the region will return, once Iran is simply forced to abandon its nuclear weapons program. Nuclear weapons, however, are strategic weapons or simply means to an end. Iran considers its nuclear weapons program a way to enlarge its influence in the region, its geopolitical objective. Focusing on Iran’s nuclear weapons program is treating a strategic issue as a geopolitical one. Strategic issues are very difficult to solve because strategies can constantly vary and adapt. Edward Luttwak, a military strategist and a historian, coined the term called “the paradox of strategy,” which states that once one comes up with a counterstrategy against the enemy’s strategy, the enemy changes its strategy, rendering the counterstrategy useless. On the other hand, geopolitical interests are permanent. Even if the United States successfully destroys Iran’s nuclear program, only one of its strategic capabilities, Tehran will continue to pursue its geopolitical objective of becoming recognized in name and practice as a major power in the region through various other means, including the use of covert assets and proxy militants or even restarting its nuclear program. There will never be stability in the Persian Gulf, as long as Iran feels that it is shut out of the region’s political process.

    Instead of focusing the strategic issue, nuclear weapons, the United States must first approach Iran in areas of shared geopolitical interests, while forging compromises on differing ones. Henry Kissinger once remarked that he could hardly imagine any other state with more common interests with the United States than Iran. Both Iran and the United States have an immense stake in the stability of the Persian Gulf. First, Iran and the United States benefit from a stable flow of oil in the region. Second, Iran and the United States do not want the instability in Iraq to spin out of control out of the fear of radical Sunni elements. Where Iran and the United States conflict is the issue of the balance of power in the Persian Gulf. Iran wants to be regarded as the dominant power in the region, while the United States has a geopolitical interest in restoring the balance of power in the region. Restoration of the balance of power in the Persian Gulf, at the moment, is simply impossible thus giving Iran an upper hand on the issue. Nonetheless, Tehran’s protracted conflict with Washington over the years has indeed taken substantial economic and political tolls on Iran. Here is where the two states could attempt to forge a compromise. In return of bringing Iran back into the region’s political process as a major power, the United States could ask Iran to not encroach on the authority of the GCC states. Iran’s nuclear weapons program, as a strategic issue, could be set aside for the time being, until a rapprochement is made between Iran and the United States. After a rapprochement is made with Iran on the basis of common interests and compromises at the geopolitical level, the United State can then return to the strategic issue of nuclear weapons, which may in fact become easier to resolve than before.

    The difficult aspect of this solution continues to be the domestic politics of both Iran and the United States. President Barack Obama is only months away from the presidential election in November, while the political situation in Iran is so volatile that it is unclear who exactly represents the official diplomatic position of the state. The Obama administration is continuously plagued by the temptation to appear tough against Iran, the rogue state, while the political situation within Iran is forcing many factions to take hardline positions against the United States, the Great Satan. Whether the Obama administration should wait until the presidential election is over or not before talking to Iran is an unclear question. The fact of the matter is that the on-going game of chicken, such as the rhetoric over the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and the United States, is becoming more and more dangerous with increasing chances of miscalculation. At the same time, there have been several subtle indications of desire for rapprochement by both sides past few months. While the current crisis is a dangerous one, it also represents an opportunity for Iran and the United States to work together to achieve stability in the region.



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      • History in the Making or a Recipe for Disaster? El Salvador’s Gang Truce Examined
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      • Priority for 21st Century Defense: A Sustainable U.S. Military Strategy
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      • From a Dirt Road to a Green Cup: Brazil 2014
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      • The Cost of Voting: How Xi Jinping Simultaneously Increased Democracy and Authoritarianism
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      • The Danger of the Thucydides Trap: Xi Jinping's Visit to the United States
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      • Why Would China Want a Democratized Hong Kong?
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      • Stronger Together: A Case for ASEAN Military Integration
      • Capitalism Fights to Survive in China’s Special Administrative Regions
      • China’s Increased Involvement in Afghanistan Divergent from U.S. Wants
      • The Future of the Tibetan Problem
      • The Geopolitical Implications of the Indo-Japanese Abe-Modi Summit
      • Australia Experiences Heightened Degree of Geopolitical Influence U.S. and China Eye Each Other’s Moves in the Asia Pacific
      • Xi Jinping’s AntiCorruption Campaign: Stalinist Purge, or Second Chance for the Chinese Communist Party?
      • South China Sea Territorial Disputes ‘Rock The Boat’ of Regional Security
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      • Nominal Interests: A Breakthrough in the Ongoing Name Dispute Between the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Greece
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      • Something is Rotting in the State of Denmark: Ethnic Nationalism Takes Root in Scandinavia
      • Blood, Oil, and Tears: Azerbaijan's Tradeoff Between Corruption and Growth
      • The Bear Awakens: Russia's Strategy to Sow Chaos in the West
      • Russia’s Return to Religion Signals Changes in Politics and Society, but Not Secularization
      • Spain: The Forgotten Frontier
      • Bye Bye Britain: Euroscepticism Threatens EU Solidarity in June Referendum
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      • Regional Reconciliation: Evaluating Whether Cuba Will Join the OAS and the Subsequent Implications
      • Has Europe Got Milk?
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      • Europe's Take on Income Inequality
      • Russia’s Role in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Sustainer of Peace or Tension?
      • The Failure of Austerity
      • The Rise of Kazakhstan: A Solution for the EU’s Russian Energy Dependence?
      • Scotland After the Independence Referendum
      • Closing the European Security Gap
      • Europe Trading Up: The Strategic Importance of the TTIP
      • The UK to Tighten Immigration Restrictions
      • Old Powers, New Glory: U.K. and France’s Changing Roles in the New European Commission
      • Greece’s Political Pressure Cooker: the Rise of Radicalism
      • Caps Off: Analyzing the EU's Influence on Swiss Immigration Policy
      • Bulgaria and Romania’s Entry into the Schengen Treaty to be Further Postponed
      • Catalan Secession and Subsidiarity
      • The View from Independence Square
      • US-Russian Antagonism Reignited Over Human Rights Policy
      • The Dynamics of the Russia-China Relationship
      • European Action to Limit Aviation Greenhouse Gas Emission
    • Middle East and North Africa Section >
      • Confessionalism, the Rise of Hizbullah, and the May 2018 Elections in Lebanon
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      • Stars and Stripes in the Middle East: American Involvement in the Yemen Civil War
      • Unlikely Bedfellows: Israeli-Saudi Security Ties and the Middle East's Worst Kept Secret
      • The Constructed People: Kurdistan's Challenge to Iraqi Nation-Building
      • Globalism, Nationalism, and the Armenian Diaspora
      • The Turkish Coup Attempt: Was it an Erdogan Hoax?
      • Counterterrorism and Monarchical Power in Morocco
      • State and Familial Prostitution in Egypt
      • Post-Revolution Tunisia: The Challenges of Regional Inequality to the Political Transition
      • Examining Jordan's Influence in the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process
      • Democracy in Tunisia
      • A Cold Peace: The Future of Egyptian-Israeli Relations
      • Can He Do It? Examining the Significance of Hassan Rouhani Regarding Iranian Relations
      • The Iranian Interim Deal: Perspectives and Implications
      • Transcending the Sunni-Shia Divide; An Overview of Al Qaeda-Iranian Relations
      • Turkey: The Middle East’s “It” Country, or Has It Outgrown Its Fifteen Minutes of Fame?
      • Religious Minorities in the MENA: The Baha'is and Druze in Israel
      • The Invisible Hand Behind the Arab Spring
      • Egypt as a Litmus Test
      • Instability in Yemen: A Rebel Takeover
      • Hitting Home: Understanding the Appeal of the Islamic State in the West
      • Lessons From Afghanistan
      • The Role of the US in Mediating the Israeli- Palestinian Conflict
      • The Everlasting Struggle: The Genius of Erdogan’s Political Rhetoric
      • Libya: Before and After the Fall of Muammar Gaddafi
      • Recent NGO Crisis Exposes Divisions in Egyptian Politics
      • The Revolution Will Be Live Streamed: The Role of the Internet in the Arab Spring: The Role of the Internet in the Arab Spring
      • Lebanon to join the Arab Spring?
      • The Persian Gulf and U.S. Strategy: Past and Future
      • Disintigrating Under Pressure: Saudi-U.S. Relations and the Syrian Conflict
      • Assessing the Effectiveness of Micro-finance Institutions in Jordan and Beyond
      • Prosecution, Politics, and Peace: Palestine’s Admittance to the International Criminal Court
    • Central and South Asia Section >
      • GST: India's Largest Economic Reform Since 1992
      • Investing in Kazakhstan: A Model of Chinese Power Acquisition
      • The Rise of Intolerance in India
      • The Past Guiding the Present: How Mongolia’s Soviet Past is Shaping its Development in the 21st Century
      • Will India Choose Israeli Technology or Iranian Oil?
      • The 2014 Indian Elections: The Rise of the BJP
      • Examining Modi's Defense Policy
      • The Indo-U.S. Relationship: Through the Lens of Republic Day
      • Hegemon Games: The Indo-Pak Question
      • Growing Forces: Foreign Investment in Central Asia
      • The Rupee Stumbles – What’s India’s Next Step?
      • The Enemy Behind the Gates: Pakistan's Teetering Talks
      • Indian Foreign Policy: In Search of a Direction
      • The Collapse of the India-Pakistan Talks
      • The Global Race to Myanmar
      • Trade: Is This the Way Ahead for Resolving Outstanding Disputes Between India and Pakistan?
    • Theme Section >
      • Economic Effects of Brexit: Should The UK Leave?
      • Will Demographics Drive China’s Debt Towards Disaster?
      • Using Realpolitik to Understand American Involvement in NATO
      • Security, Money, and Culture: The Role of the WTO in the Resilience of the U.S.-Japan Alliance
      • The Effects of China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Influence, Trade, and Resources
      • The Responsibility to Protect: A Well-Meaning yet Inadequate Solution to the Battle Between Sovereignty and Humanitarian Intervention
      • Disconnecting Dissent: The Dilemma of Privatized Public Speech and Free Information Online
      • Who Owns the Internet?: Control and Mastery of the New Public Sphere
      • Online Community Building: The Emotional, Social, and Political Challenges of Adapting to a New Way of Being Together
      • “The Great Firewall” as an Inefficient Barrier
      • Borderline Open: The Barriers of Schengen
      • The World’s Most Dangerous Border: Refugees in the Mediterranean Are Fighting for Their Lives
      • Overcoming the Physical Barriers of Natural Disasters: Despair and Hope in post-Hurricane Dominica
      • From Past to Present: The Porous Nature of the DRC’s Borders
      • India's Struggle for Gender Equality
      • A False Sense of Protection: Failure of the UN to Address Allegations of Sexual Assault Against Peacekeepers
      • Scapegoats of Politics: How the Malaysian Transgender Community Fell Victim to the Politicization of Islam
      • Adversity and Perseverance: The Story of Bangladesh's Garment Worker
      • "Bye, Honey!": Brazilian Women Fight for Their Rights After Dilma Rousseff's Impeachment
      • Mexico's Unstable Democracy: Self-Defense Groups, Cartels, and the Struggle Over the Rule of Law
      • Obama to Trump: Immigration Policy Rhetoric and Resistance
      • Translating Democratic Theory into Constitutional Design: A Conversation with Professor Jefferey A. Lenowitz
      • The Reign In Spain: Analyzing the Catalan Threat to European Democratic Order
      • Reaching for the Sky: The New Age of Connection in Sri Lanka
      • The Battle for Ukraine
      • North Korea’s Strategy of Escalating Threats and Its Problems
      • Accusations of Pinkwashing in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
      • Economies in Transformation, A Continent in Transition
      • The Dynastic Dictatorship Continued: The Internal Dynamics of North Korea and What to Expect From the New Leader
      • Russia's Gas Diplomacy
      • The "Oldest Profession" Organizes: A Conversation with Professor Gowri Vijayakumar
      • An Amazonian Legacy of Military Rule
      • Soldiers of Destiny, Deferred: Marriage Equality and Reproductive Rights in Irish Politics
      • A Tale of Two Courts: Why Chinese Capitalism Does Not Come With the Rule of Law
      • A Failure to Rise to the Occasion: Syria and the Future of “Responsibility to Protect”
      • South Sudan: Democracy Or Despair
      • Protests and Repression in a Digital Age
      • Wiping the Slate Clean: Modi's Water Conundrum
      • Increasing Oil Production: A Sound Approach to Achieving U.S. Energy Independence?
      • Water's Influence on Middle Eastern Policy: A Conversation with Dr. Mahmoud Abu-Allaban
      • A New Era for the Nile: The Effects of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
      • Getting Past the Green Monster: An Analysis of Germany's Energy Transition
      • Theme Section Graphics
      • The African Union and a New Scramble: A Continent in Transition
      • Regional Perspectives
      • Pervasive Issues in China's Continued Urbanization
      • Art, Power, Politics, and Protest in Saudi Arabia
      • Should Europe Brace Itself for Brexit
      • Energy Analysis
      • Composition & Organs
      • African Union Timeline
      • The Rohingya Refugee Crisis
      • Interview with Dr. Sung-Yoon Lee, Kim Koo-Korea Foundation Professor in Korean Studies
      • A Historical and Political Understanding of Aid: The Implications and Conditions of Aid Packages
      • Park Geun-hye’s “New Kind of Korea” Prospects for Re-envisioned Inter-Korean Relations
      • Interview with Professor Nyangoni
      • Interview With Professor Padraig Carmody of Trinity College of Dublin, Author of The New Scramble for Africa
      • Timeline of U.S. Refugee Resettlement
      • A closer look into North Korea
      • How Does North Korea Stack Up?
      • According to the Expert: Interview With Professor Eva Bellin
      • Fulfilling an Ideological Destiny? An Insight into United States Policy Regarding the Syrian Conflict
      • PIS Off: Polish Women Mobilize to Reject Tightening of Abortion Restrictions
      • Brain Drain in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Downside of Migration
      • Grand Master and Pawns: Looking at the United States and Russia
      • In Putin’s Element: Why the U.S. Needs to Let Russia Take the Lead in Destroying Syria’s Chemical Weapons
      • In Syria, It’s the End of the Line
      • Greenback Boogie: The Story of Remittances from Central Asian Immigrants in Russia
      • Regional Perspectives
      • The EU as a Passive Actor
      • In Search of Home: The Impact of Syrian Refugees on the International Community
      • Vladimir Putin: The New Leader of the Free World?
      • Modi's Pakistan Strategy
      • Resistance Infographic
      • Mexico's Other Border: Human Rights Abuses of the Trans-North American Migrant Crisis
      • Most Significant Refugee Producing Countries
      • Syrian Conflict Statistics
      • The View From Moscow: Contention and Cooperation in the Middle East
      • A Discussion of the EU with Lorenzo Bini Smaghi
      • EU Timeline
      • Turkey's Membership in the EU: A Holy Venture?
      • Al-Shabaab and the Threats Posed to International Peace and Security
      • Interview with Professor Robert J. Art
      • Instability and Nationalism: Why Ecuador's Colombian Refugees Face Discrimination
      • ISIS Timeline
      • Interview with Professor Gary Jefferson
      • Contemporary Cyber-Terrorism
      • ISIS’ Rise to Prominence and Implications for the Future: A Conversation with Ambassador Dennis Ross
      • Qatar: An Uncertain Ally Against IS
      • Red to Pink: The Continued Evolution of the Chinese Internet Space
      • Russia’s Separatist Subversions: Return of the Steamroller, or Running Out of Steam?
      • Shifting Sands: Arab Tacit Support of Israel during the Recent Gaza Conflict
      • North Korea’s Other Crisis
      • China’s Korean Dilemma
      • State-Sponsored Separatism: the Specter of Russian Influence in Post-Revolution Ukraine
      • The Iraqi Crisis: The Effects of Sectarian Politics and Religious Divides
      • The Islamic State and the Rise of Western Jihadism: Interview with Professor Jytte Klausen
      • Regions Under Threat By Global Climate Change
    • Afro and African American Studies >
      • Malcolm X: A Misunderstood Legacy
    • Sociology >
      • The Implications of the Melting Pot: Examining the Political Socialization Process for Children of Immigrants
      • The Modern WelfareWarfare Nexus
    • Economics >
      • The Demise of Middle-Class America: Corporate-Performance Focused Development, Automation, and the Middle-Class Squeeze
      • Equity and Efficiency: Reconsidering the “Big Tradeoff”
      • Low Cost Carriers and the Future of Air Travel in Asia
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